The landscape of North China has been transformed over the past quarter
century. Overall figures show that China is losing millions of hectares of farmland and
forests, thereby adding hundreds of millions of tons to the global carbon cycle and
contributing to global climate change. Faced with threats to environmental
sustainability and food security, the Chinese government has put forth policies to
control land use change, protecting forests and farmland while limiting urban expansion.
To evaluate the prospects for success of such policies, this study explores the spatial
contexts in which urbanization continues to take place, testing the hypothesis that urban
growth is structured by the economic geography of urban systems. Evidence of urban
growth from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program and Landsat imagery is analyzed
through Skinner’s Hierarchical Regional Space model for contemporary China.
Indicators of urban importance are developed from satellite imagery and census data
and compared for the ability to predict rates of urban expansion. A composite model integrating these indicators, regional systems indices, and changes in the transport
network is developed to explain urban growth in North China during the 1990s. Case
studies detail local variations within macroregional trends. The study concludes that
conflicts between current policies regarding land conservation and economic
development, especially highway construction, do little to control continued urban
expansion, and suggests steps that can be taken to align local interests with the national
and global benefits of land conservation.

Additional materials are available at http://han.skinner.ucdavis.edu/mh/.