The Volta River basin is one of the most economically deprived areas in Africa. Rain-fed and some irrigated agriculture is the main economic activity of the majority of the population living in this region. High population growth rates have brought in its wake increasing pressure on land and water resources. Due to large variability in precipitation patterns, the development and optimum use of (near) surface water resources is the key to improved agricultural production in this region. As a result of the interplay between land/atmosphere, energy, water (vapor) and land use, significant shifts in land use patterns will bring about spatio-temporal changes in weather patterns and rainfall characteristics. There is the need therefore for a sustainable management of the water resources of the Volta River Basin.

It is a well-perceived notion that man and his activities are the major drivers behind land use/cover change, and therefore become very central in any land use/cover change analysis. This study was therefore carried out as a sub-project of the GLOWA Volta Project, and it specifically looked at the relationship between population and other socio-economic dynamics, on the one hand, and agricultural and forest land uses on the other, and predicted the effects of changes in population on the two land uses in 2010.

At the general basin level, population data were derived from population census reports of Ghana for 1960, 1970, 1984 and 2000, while forest cover information was derived from land cover and land use maps of 1990/91 and 2000, which were developed using LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite images. Agricultural land use data for 1992 and 2000 as well as a soil suitability map were also used. At the district level the main source of data was primary. A structured and open-ended questionnaire was administered amongst 252 households in 12 localities in the Kassena-Nankana district and 9 communities in the Ejura-Sekyedumase district.

Results show that the Bawku and Bolgatanga-Tongo districts in the White Volta and the Kete-Krachi district in the Daka will experience agricultural land shortfalls in the year 2010 as a result of changes in population. At the district level, years allowed for land fallow and proportion of major farmers were predictors of cropped area in Kassena-Nankana in 1984. However, the situation changed in 2000, since land fallow did not only cease to be a predictor of cropped area, but also had a negative relationship with cropped area. In 1984, population of the locality was a predictor of cropped area in Ejura-Sekyedumase. In 2000, distance to farthest farm, off-farm income, and practice of agricultural extensification were predictors of cropped area in Kassena-Nanana, while population of the locality again predicted cropped area in Ejura-Sekyedumase. The analysis further shows that extra income earned off-farm is not necessarily invested into farming activities.

On the effects of population change on forest cover, predictions show that only the Jaman and Berekum districts within the Black Volta sub-basin will have depleted forest cover as a result of increase in population density.