Potential changes in the global climate pose challenges for public land managers concerned with future land uses. Climate affects the wildlife, vegetation, and other resources that managers are charged with preserving, and it also affects the degree of visitor use of park resources (both directly, through the visitor experience, and indirectly, through changes in park resources). The environmental uncertainty of future climate effects, the resulting economic uncertainty faced by resource-dependent communities, and the social uncertainty of population growth characterize the economic problem: which uncertainties are most significant for moderating the effects of future climate change?

Changes in natural resources resulting from climate change have measurable economic effects, including the impacts to the demand for outdoor recreation, the regional economy of neighboring communities, and the economic efficiency of public goods provision. Such resource changes may be exogenous (e.g., changes in climate patterns) or endogenous (e.g., changes in management direction). Economics offers several tools with which to measure these effects. Measuring the impact to the regional economy from a change in resources requires the estimation of the induced effect on visitation. This can be done in two ways, using revealed- and stated-preference methods. First, a regression analysis of historical data (revealed-preference) can be used to estimate coefficients on independent variables representing resource changes (as long as resource changes occurred during some historic baseline period) and their influence on visitor use. Prediction intervals can be formed around the visitation forecasts to test for the relative effects of resource changes and population growth on future recreation use. Second, a contingent behavior analysis (stated-preference method) can be performed by using a visitor survey to elicit responses on conditional changes in visitation based on hypothetical resource scenarios. The results of either analysis can be used, in conjunction with an input-output model, to estimate the impact to the regional economy of a gateway community in terms of employment, output, and income. Furthermore, in order to measure the effects to the economic efficiency of the recreation good, the contingent valuation method can be used; hypothetical resource changes can be described in a visitor survey to elicit responses about potential changes in economic benefits (or net willingness to pay).

This analysis is a comprehensive examination of the impacts to visitor demand, regional economic variables, and economic efficiency of exogenous changes in natural resources resulting from potential climate change. The studies test the null hypothesis that changes in climate (and the resulting changes in resources) have no effect on visitation or the benefits derived from recreation. Rejection of this null hypothesis suggests several policy implications, including the need for a strategy for mitigating, rationing, or accommodating the predicted changes in park visitation. The regional implications for park gateway communities suggest the need for a strategy that addresses infrastructure development, transportation, and employment issues to address future changes in regional population and climate change.