|SS1.05 How Will Aquatic Ecosystems Respond to Climate Change?|
|Date: Tuesday, June 11, 2002|
|Time: 3:15:00 PM|
|Location: Oak Bay|
|Kamenir, y, G, Bar Ilan Univ., Ramat Gan, Israel, firstname.lastname@example.org|
|Dubinsky, Z, , Bar Ilan Univ., Ramat Gan, Israel, email@example.com|
|AN IMES BASED FORECAST FOR NATURAL AQUATIC COMMUNITIES|
|The problem of forecast is especially difficult for systems changing their structure under external stress or intrinsic development. This is the case with natural aquatic communities.
Holistic approaches concerned with stability of integral system parameters seem to be preferable. Then we should turn from dynamical properties of the system component subsets to the logic of an 'ideal object' and statistics of quasi-static states of the system examined as a whole.
The Ideal Minimal Ecosystem (IMES) model, based on concepts of Cuvier and Vernadsky, considers an ecosystem as a specific dissipative structure, a highly branched recycling network. Composed of a huge number of closed loops, such 'distributed gyroscope' is very flexible. Therefore, studies of subsets of its components (e.g., taxonomic, trophic, topic groups of organisms) are difficult.
Top-down design, theory of dissipative structures and automatic control theory could be effective to analyze such systems. For ecosystems, they can produce basic parameters valuable for taxonomic models.
Size spectrum of integral surface index (ISI) is considered here as operational descriptor of the community adaptation diagnostics.
SS1-05 SS4-10 CS22