Sellinger, C. E. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
, . E. ,

Accurate forecast of the Great Lakes water levels and chemical composition requires data on the entire water budget. Precipitation, surface-water runoff, and evaporation, which are three components of the water budget, are fairly accurately estimated. However, few attempts have been made to quantify the groundwater component of flow to lakes. Groundwater that flows directly into a lake not only contributes to its water volume, but its chemical balance. This non-point source of chemicals contributes an unknown amount of nutrients and contaminants to lakes. Past estimates of Lake Michigan's groundwater budget was calculated by estimating flow at a single field site then prorating that value to the entire lake. This method not only produced estimates differing by two-orders of magnitude, but due to the immense spatial variability in parameters that govern groundwater flow, the validity of prorated flows is questionable. The approach of this study was to construct a three-dimensional, five-layered, groundwater computer model. Funded by the Maria Sklodowska-Curie Joint Fund II--Joint U.S.--Polish Commission, this three-year project included historical data compilation, model formulation and field study. This presentation will include the model's approach, formulation and preliminary results.
Day: Friday, Feb. 5
Time: 03:30 - 03:45pm
Location: Eldorado Hotel
Code: SS48FR0345E