Vallino, J. J. Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, jvallino@mbl.edu
, . J. ,

 
IMPROVING MARINE ECOSYSTEM MODELS: USE OF DATA ASSIMILATION AND MESOCOSM EXPERIMENTS
 
A significant fraction of marine food web modeling has focused on concept models where the objective is to capture, qualitatively, the behavior of aquatic ecosystems. Although concept models have proved to be extremely valuable for elucidating principles governing aquatic ecosystems, we must consider them qualitative because they are often only compared to limited experimental data sets or observations, or to no data at all, and often lack the breadth to fully capture ecosystem biogeochemistry. To improve the quantitative prognostic capabilities of marine food web models, we have combined mesocosm experiments with data assimilation techniques to remove model parameter uncertainty and thereby reveal model structural uncertainty. Although the approach is proving quite powerful, it reveals that current generation food web models lack the proper structure to capture ecosystem dynamics, especially with respect to organic matter processing. We will present the data assimilation techniques we have been developing with an emphasis on a variety of optimization algorithms we have examined. We will illustrate the problems identified in current generation food web models along with avenues of possible solutions to the problems.
 
Day: Monday, Feb. 1
Time: 04:15 - 04:30pm
Location: Eldorado Hotel
 
Code: SS44MO0415E